Summary of Pat and Steve Miller presentation to Barbara Blumenthal, 3/9/2022. (summarized 3/20/2022)

We live in Monmouth County which is mostly JCP&L and NJNGas territory.
Data is current billing for JCP&L and NJNGas in Monmouth County.

Pat and I shared a graph (+ spreadsheet of supporting calculations) with Barbara Blumenthal on March 9
  (Barbara sponsored the Acadia study for NJ Conservation Foundation)
With Barbara, we compared the attached to Acadia modeling.
Acadia uses
   1. COP ratings for the hour-to-hour weather conditions, for the FULL YEAR. 
       I use HSPF - data supplied by manufacturer's full heat-season testing for a particular heat pump model
  2.  NJ averages for gas and electric.
       I used a specific NJ region.
Barbara has already, or plans to, provide this information to the modeling person at Acadia.

My data is current (as of March 9): JCP&L electric prices, NJNGas prices, propane, and oil
My curves provide me an intuitive feel
My methane and heat pump curves apply ONLY in JCP&L and NJNaturalGas territory (maybe 30 or 40% of NJ residents):
In PSEG territory, the efficient heat pump operating cost is likely HIGHER than the cost of an efficient gas furnace
  (I have not calculated and plotted- it is easy to do, but I have been too busy)

1. oil burner might be 80% efficient, (or electric resistance heating): cost to provide a therm of heat (100,000 BTU) is about $4.40
     switching to the best-performing heat pump (HSPF 14) would cost $1.10 per therm
      switching to the average heatpump would cost $1.40 per therm  (using 10.65 HSPF avg of the "best" 2021 central duct heat pumps)
     (HSPF = Heating Season Performance Factor)
2.  gas furnace with 60% efficiency (a 20+ year old gas furnace) costs $2.20 per therm
     compare to $1.10 per therm for heat pump
3. Someone with electric resistance heating is paying $4.40 per therm

CONCLUSIONS/OBSERVATIONS  Acadia models used NJ-average energy prices.
HOWEVER, moving from one NJ region to another will show dramatically different results:
In JCP&L territory- the NJNG prices are HIGH (I pay $1.34 per therm), and electric is low (I pay 14.7cents/kwh)
In PSEG territory- the PSEG gas prices are low (about $1/therm), and electricity is high (maybe 17 cents/kwh
These regional difference will likely swap the electricity and gas curves- gas is likely cheaper than electric (but I havent done & plotted these calculations)
Steve Miller