Erickson-comments: Pat -  plausibly the BE team instead could use the 21%  2030  EMP "least cost" for the Building Electrification Category (see Mike's input below) and reference the EMP Technical Appendix, instead of the 500K.  It would be more aggressive than the 500K, but as the benefit of being grounded in what NJ has already published as "least cost", i.e. the technical appendix.

Per the attached updated 2030 tab spreadsheet I maintain, the 21% computes as 790K units instead of 500K (which would be instead of earlier proposals amongst us to use 1,000,000, 900,000 & 25%).

Note, the spreadsheet treats the entire MMT as "Building Electrification" for residential units and does not get into breaking the residential heating MMT up by space heating, water heating heat pumps, cooking, drying, etc., though the reference does provide this breakdown as you note below.    The spreadsheet uses the a computed electricity cost based on "cold climate" HSPF to penalize the heat pumps for their consumed electricity, but treats the entire category amount this way, thus also not considering a more detailed breakdown for the electricity cost of water heating heat pumps, cooking, drying heat pumps, etc.

Pat - I believe one of your documents entered "N%" for MMT saved or something similar....I added a row to the spreadsheet to compute this, which you could use depending on which target the BE team selects.  But it computes VS the NJ residential heating MMT, but not vs the total MMT NJ consumes annually, so that the percentage looks far better.
For example, 16% GHG savings for the 790K residential units electrified, per attached spreadsheet, if you choose the 790K as the BE team goal.  (Note, again based on treating the entire residential heating category as 100% "cold climate" heat pumps")

Note, if the 790K is chosen as the 2030 BE team goal, we should change the interim goal, as its too low in that case.  Pro rata, using the 100K/500K, the comparable interim goal is about 160K.

On Wed, Mar 30, 2022 at 3:41 PM MICHAEL WINKA <> wrote:
The numbers DEP cites for cold weather heat pumps for space heating and water heating are from 2019 EMP technical appendix see pages 32 to 48. 
It is broken down by decades 2020, 2030 2040 and 2050 
For SH heat pumps it is 5%, 21%, 63% and 86% and for HW heat pumps it is 16%, 46%, 89%, 93%  respectively for the residential sectors.  Similar numbers for the commercial and industrial sectors. 
These would be the numbers plugged into the RMI/Evolve least cost model results 

Bob we should check to see if the goal we are requesting for residential heat pumps is consistent with the model.